The Apple iPad

[Chris Grayson]

Everyone seems to have an opinion about the iPad. So I'll use my first post on the new forum to throw out my 2¢ and perhaps stir a little debate.

Some think the iPad is the bee's knees, others say it's a certain failure.

I think it's a niche product for many niches, that will create a growing category for itself in mobile devices (it is, as yet, not an AR device... but has every potential to become one).

Many in the AR Community have bemoaned the fact that the iPad doesn't include a camera. I think that's a false criticism. A camera can be attached via it's main docking port and an "iPad Camera Connection Kit" is shown as an accessory available at launch. The truth is, for most users a camera is not a must-have in a tablet. Those of us in the AR community should be pleased that they did include GPS, a Compass and an Accelerometer within the hardware. As for myself, I'd personally prefer the camera as an attachment, so it can also be used front-facing to turn the device into a mobile iChat video-conferencing device.

All of that aside, I don't think I'm the target, and I'm skeptical that I will be an early adopter (though a shiny new thing is tempting... we'll see in two months). I initially thought the iPad would be able to double as a slim/portable second monitor for my MacBookPro, which would have put me at the front of the line -- something I've been longing for, for ages, but would certainly only have appeal to the tiniest niche market of users. But alas, I've been informed that I misinterpreted the specs, and the video connection is only for output, not input (damn).

Regardless, I see several markets for the iPad:

Doctors, Nurses and the huge (and growing) healthcare industry for starters. Blogs like to relish attention on the game developer here-and-there that make an unexpected mint off of their iPhone app, but four of the 10 most expensive iPhone apps are for the medical profession (and people balk at $50 for Wolfram Alpha). The Apple Newton's single largest market was the medical field, many of whom still lament the death of the Newton. And the medical profession is also the largest market for tablet based PCs of all stripes. So, Doctors will shell out for the iPad, big time. Guaranteed.

Many are proclaiming the iPad the Kindle killer. I'm more interested to see if, rather than killing off the Kindle, it instead grows the pie, and makes eBook readers mainstream. Also, because the iPad is full-color glossy, the magazine publishers (who never embraced the black-and-white Kindle) are all over it. The current recession has hit the print periodical industry hard. And, in spite of luminaries to the contrary, the growth in digital media marketing spend has come mostly at the expense of print, not broadcast. Magazine publishers are going to throw all the weight they've got behind this thing.

The next low hanging fruit are college students. As a student, given the choice, would you lug around a backpack full of five-or-six 500 to 750 page hardback books, or one single 1.5 pound iPad? Some may recall that several US Universities have already been distributing iPhones for free as part of their incoming student package. The iPad is a small next-logical-step. The textbook industry is all over this thing. Typically they spend several years or more developing a new textbook, for which they make major profits for precisely one year. Subsequent years the revenue, even for a widely used textbook, plummets as their sales are cannibalized by the used-book market from the outgoing students of the previous semester who sell them back to the bookstore. Removing the cost of printing and distribution, publishers can sell digital "revised editions" to each incoming class for a much lower price and still maintain acceptable margins plus higher recurring sales (not to mention, free them up to focus on the actual pedagogic part of their business). Of course local used book stores have already seen Amazon and eBay destroy most of their business model. The college textbook market is about all they've got left. Right about now they should be quaking in their crocs.

I could also see the iPad being adopted by inventory and supply-chain managers where tablet devices running proprietary software are also common. And retail sales environments, used as portable cash registers. Apple already uses iPod-Touch devices with a credit-card swiper attachment as mobile cash-registers in their own Apple Stores. I expect to see iPads widely used on retail sales floors, especially at more customer-focused boutiques and high-end shops ("Do we have that in stock in a size 6? I'll check." "No need to wait in line. If you're paying by credit-card I can ring that up for you, here.").

I view these as the markets where Apple will see their initial sales. As much as they have touted things like porting iWork for business users, and the gaming experience, I feel those are added bonuses. They're covering a bunch of potential bases, to make sure their isn't a reason not to get one. But I don't see those as major market drivers for the device... and if it turns out that they are, then the market will be much larger than I suspect.

So what do you say?

[richafur]

All good ideas, Chris, thank you. I would also add that there is an opportunity for museums, curators, and event coordinators to present custom content and localized guided tours on branded devices. Imagine the opportunity to connect captive audiences with instant polls, critiques, social commentary and or course, conversation. There also the opportunity to push related and deep-dive content to interested parties. (Famous Art Museum patron: “I wonder who influenced this artist/painting?” Click = Article: artist bio; Video: tour of artist gallery; Video: artist profile; Map: more works by this artist in museum; Map: works by artist who have influenced this artist; Map: works by artists who were influenced by this artist; Slideshow: Artist portfolio; …You get the picture)
However, Like many onboard the “iPad Disappointment” bus, I was looking forward to a fully AR capable device out of the box from Apple. I work with an office full of Apple evangelist who will purchase anything Apple for no other reason that the fact this it has white apple logo on the package. These folks, and there are quite a few folks like this out there, will no doubt be among the first in line outside Apple stores around the world come late March and April. Will they make the additional camera purchase? Maybe. The bigger issue for me, however, was the opportunity to showcase AR to all the other non-Apple evangelist.
My hope was that the iPad would be a game-changer, ala the iPhone or iPod in terms of AR. I believe that there will be a 2.0 version in the near future, but imagine the wave of projects a fully capable AR device would have unleashed today! Recall the impact the McDonanld’s AR promotion for the James Cameron movie Avatar had for AR:
“The McDonald’s/Avatar promotion delivers augmented reality on an unprecedented global scale,” said Bruno Uzzan, CEO, Total Immersion. “It’s by far the widest use of AR we’ve ever seen, potentially touching hundreds of millions worldwide. At the same time, it signals the arrival of digital experiences, to complement durable goods in the marketplace –a trend we expect will accelerate in the months and years ahead.”
Source: The Reality of Augmented Reality , January 5, 201 by JarrelPair at Laboratory 4: Advanced interactive Media Blog http://www.augmentedenvironments.org/blair/2010/01/05/

Or could it be that maybe I’m just too impatient.